Nine countries at risk of being struck by asteroid in 2032 confirmed. Scientists have identified nine nations that could be in the direct path of the massive asteroid 2024 YR4.
History of previous asteroids recalled.
The idea of asteroid deflection has been explored before. NASA’s DART mission successfully redirected a smaller asteroid in 2022, proving that impact-based deflection is possible. The history of asteroid impacts on Earth serves as a grim reminder of their destructive power. The Chicxulub asteroid, which struck Earth 66 million years ago, wiped out nearly three-quarters of life on the planet, including the dinosaurs.
More recently, in 1908, an explosion over Siberia—likely caused by an asteroid or comet—flattened more than 800 square miles of forest. However, 2024 YR4’s size presents a far greater challenge, requiring multiple spacecraft to alter its course.
Details of asteroid explained
This enormous space rock, roughly the size of the Statue of Liberty, could cause widespread devastation if it collides with Earth. Discovered in late 2024, the asteroid has been under close observation due to its potentially dangerous trajectory. Originally, experts estimated only a slight chance of impact, but recent calculations suggest the probability has nearly doubled to 2.3%. The European Space Agency (ESA) has flagged 2024 YR4 as one of the highest-risk asteroids ever detected.
If the asteroid were to strike, scientists estimate the energy released could equal an eight-megaton explosion—enough to flatten anything within a 30-mile radius. Dr. Robin George Andrews, a planetary scientist and author of How to Kill an Asteroid, warns that attempting to deflect the asteroid could backfire.
“Breaking it up could turn a single impact into multiple fragments still heading for Earth,” Andrews cautioned. Andrews compares the risk to turning a cannonball into a scattered spray of bullets. He also warns that even a slight miscalculation could push the asteroid onto a different but equally dangerous collision path.
Bombshell advice from scientists exposed
Given the potential for destruction, some scientists argue that evacuation, rather than deflection, might be the best course of action. Andrews suggests that in this case, moving people out of the asteroid’s path may be the safest option. “If this one’s going to hit, maybe we just need to get out of the way,” he remarked. NASA plans to use the James Webb Space Telescope to collect more data on 2024 YR4, including its precise size and path.
The information gathered will be critical in determining how much of a threat the asteroid truly poses. Experts are divided on how to proceed—some advocate for attempting a deflection, while others fear the risks outweigh the potential benefits. Governments in the nine at-risk nations have been advised to start contingency planning.